9/8: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
1.4 million jobs added in August, official unemployment rate falls to 8.4 percent
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the “U-3” official unemployment rate fell 1.8 points to 8.4 percent. Still, the number of people in the U.S. reporting permanent job losses rose by about 534,000, or over 18 percent, to 3.4 million, the highest level since 2013. In August, an increase in government employment largely reflected temporary hiring for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, in professional and business services, in leisure and hospitality, and in education and health services.
As of late August, 33 percent of small businesses have experienced negative impacts from pandemic
Based on responses collected August 23 through August 29, the Small Business Pulse Survey estimates that during the COVID-19 pandemic, 32.7 percent of U.S. small businesses have experienced a large negative effect from the COVID-19 pandemic, 46.0 percent of U.S. small businesses believe more than 6 months of time will pass before their business returns to its normal level of operations, and 54.9 percent of U.S. small businesses did not furlough or lay off any paid employees after March 13, 2020.
August commercial mortgage delinquencies dip 58 basis points to 9.02 percent
The Trepp Commercial Mortgage-Backed Security (CMBS) delinquency rate continued its downward trend in August after posting the largest decline in four years in July. The overall CMBS delinquency rate in August was 9.02 percent, a decline of 58 basis points from the July number. About 1.21 percent of the overall number represents loans in the 30 days delinquent bucket while another 1.04 percent is now 60 days delinquent. Both of those numbers were sizable improvements from July. However, the percentage of loans that are 90 or more days delinquent rose to 4.02 percent in August from 2.65 percent in July.