8/25: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

July existing home sales up 24.7 percent from June and 8.7 percent year-on-year

Total existing-home sales jumped 24.7 percent from June to a seasonally-adjusted anual rate of 5.86 million in July, besting the previous record of 20.7 percent in June, and were also up 8.7 percent year-on-year.  The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $304,100, up 8.5 percent from July 2019, and marking the first time the median price has exceeded $300,000.  Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.9 months in June and 4.2 months in July of 2019.


July New Home Pending Sales Index up 5.3 percent from June and 32.7 percent year-on-year

The New Home Pending Sales Index for July captured a 32.7 percent increase in contract sales compared to last year and a 5.3 percent increase month-over-month. July’s data highlights that the strength of the housing market is carrying on later in the year than the typical seasonality.


August economic output index rises 8.7 percent to 18-month high

The U.S. Composite PMI Output Index posted 54.7 in August, up from 50.3 at the start of the third quarter and signalled a strong increase in output. Moreover, it marked the sharpest upturn in private sector business activity since February 2019.  The Services PMI™ Business Activity Index registered 54.8 in August, up from 50.0 in July, and signalled the first expansion in service sector business activity since the start of 2020. The rate of growth was the fastest since March 2019.   The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ posted 53.6 in August, up from 50.9 in July. The overall rate of improvement was the fastest since January 2019.


July mortgage delinquencies drop 9 percent from June, but up 100 percent year-on-year

Mortgage delinquencies continued to improve in July, falling 9 percent from June but up nearly 100 percent year-on-year to account for 6.91 percent of all mortgages.  Early-stage delinquencies – loans with a single missed payment – have fallen below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that the initial inflow of new COVID-19-related delinquencies has subsided. However, serious delinquencies – those 90 or more days past due – rose by 376,000 since Jun, or 20 percent, and are now up more than 1.8 million, or over 400 percent, from their pre-pandemic levels to 2.5 million.