6/25: EconUpdate by P. Duffy

EconUpdate by P. Duffy

Initial unemployment claims dip 1.7 percent from previous week to 411,000

What does this mean?  The drop in initial and continued claims is consistent with the economy reopening.

In the week ending June 19, initial unemployment claims were 411,000, a decrease of 7,000, or 1.7 percent, from the previous week’s revised level.  Continued claims during the week ending June 12 were 3,390,000, a decrease of 144,000, or 4.1 percent, from the previous week’s revised level.  The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending June 5 was 14,845,450, an increase of 3,756 from the previous week.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf 

Early June economic index slips to 63.9 as supplier delays and staff shortages build

What does this mean?  Although still reporting a historic rate of expansion, shortages in supplies and staffing are having an impact on growth.

The IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index posted 63.9 in June, down from 68.7 in May, but nonetheless signaling a historically elevated rate of expansion in output across the private sector.  However, moderations in activity growth were seen in both the manufacturing and service sectors, with goods producers hampered in particular by significant supplier delays and both sectors reporting difficulties finding staff.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/72d0041a981c420595341ef772405501

Pending new home sales index slips 3.9 percent in May, but up 32.6 percent year-on-year

What does this mean?  Lack of supply continues to hamper new home sales even though demand remains strong.

The May New Home Pending Sales Index posted a 32.6 percent increase from May of last year. The index is off from cycle highs as tight inventory continues to constrain the full market potential, falling 3.9 percent from April.

https://zondahome.com/new-home-psi-buyers-continue-to-compete-for-limited-inventory/