11/24: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY


November economic output index rises to 57.9, highest since March 2015

The IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index posted 57.9 in November, up from 56.3 in October. The rate of
growth was the sharpest since March 2015, as a steep upturn in service sector activity was accompanied by an accelerated rise in manufacturing production.


Confidence in market for new multi-family housing rose in 3Q20 as vacancies fell

Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing increased in the third quarter, according to results from the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS). The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) rose 11 points to 48 compared to the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the Multifamily Vacancy Index (MVI) decreased 18 points to 44, with smaller numbers indicating fewer vacancies.


Townhome starts slip in 3Q20, but long-term prospects remain positive

During the third quarter of 2020, single-family attached starts totaled 31,000, which was 3% lower than the third quarter of 2019 (32,000). Over the last four quarters, townhouse construction starts totaled 105,000 units, 5% lower than the prior four quarter total (111,000).  Using a one-year moving average, the market share of new townhouses fell to 11% of all single-family starts.   The long-run prospects for townhouse construction remain positive given growing numbers of homebuyers looking for medium-density residential neighborhoods, such as urban villages that offer walkable environments and other amenities.


October CRE prices up 3.6 percent year-on-year on strength of apartment and industrial sectors

The October US National All-Property Index rose 3.6% from a year ago, the apartment index rose 7.2% and the industrial index 8.5%. Retail prices posted another month of declines, down 5.2% from a year prior. Returns in the sector are currently at a low not seen since the end of 2010.  The office sector continued to fall at about a 1% annual rate. Suburban offices have led to that slide, falling 1.6% year-over-year in October and posting five consecutive months of declining yearly returns.