10/13: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Median home sales price up 15 percent to record high, active listings fall 28 percent year-on-year

During the 4-week period ending October 4, the median home sale price increased 15 percent year over year to $320,625—the highest on record in Redfin’s data, which goes back through 2012. Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 28 percent from 2019 to a new all-time low. The rate of year-over-year supply declines has remained consistent at this level for the past few months.  For the week ending October 4, the seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index was up 34.9 percent from pre-pandemic levels in January and February.


Share of mortgage loans in forbearance drops again to 5.6 percent

As the first wave of forbearances from April are hitting the end of their initial six-month term, the national forbearance rate has decreased to 5.6 percent. This figure is down from 6.8 percent last week, with active forbearances falling below 3 million for the first time since mid-April, representing the largest single-week decline since the beginning of the pandemic.


Special servicing rate for commercial property mortgages rises to highest level since May 2013

The Trepp Special Servicing rate for commercial mortgages saw an increase of 44 basis points in September, coming in at 10.48 percent, compared to 10.04 percent in August. Like the last few months, the surge could be attributed mainly to an increase in the retail and lodging special servicing rates.  The overall CMBS special servicing rate is the highest rate recorded since May 2013, and is likely to continue to increase in the coming months.