1/28: Economic Update by P. DUFFY

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Economic Update by P. DUFFY

November Case-Shiller Index up 9.5 percent year-on-year, largest gain in six years

Home prices rose by a record 9.5% year-on-year in November, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index.   This increase was up from 8.5% the previous month, and wasn’t just the highest annual rise in six years, but one of the sharpest in the history of the series. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.4%.


Consumer Confidence Index up 2.2 percent in January as future expectations improve

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved moderately in January, after decreasing in December, rising 2.2 percent to 89.3.  In addition, the percent of consumers who said they intend to purchase a home in the next six months improved, suggesting that the pace of home sales should remain robust in early 2021.


Eviction crisis looms for 10 million people behind in rent

About 18% renters in America, or around 10 million people, were behind in their rent payments as of the beginning of January 2021.  The typical delinquent renter now owes $5,600, being nearly four months behind on their monthly payment, including utilities and late fees, for a total of over $57 billion.


Purchase loan apps fall 4 percent from previous week, but up 16 percent year-on-year

The Market Composite Index for mortgage apps decreased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans falling 4 percent (but up 16 percent year-on-year) and refinance activity falling 5 percent (but up 83 percent year-on-year).  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 2.95 percent from 2.92 percent.